Apple's last publicly presented concept product: the knowledge navigator (late 80's) (via Counternotions)

In a - in my humble opinion - brilliant post on his counternotions blog, 'Kontra' goes head on with the notion of product concepts: Why Apple Doesn't do 'Concept Products'. He argues that product concepts often are made in and for a make-believe context: the designers working on them are not challenged by real world constraints, thus coming up with concepts such as the Nokia Morph that are as appealing as they are unrealistic. In addition he points out that presenting 'future concepts' might actually contribute more to the public image of a company than to day-to-day product development. If your concept really is that good: why not keep them a secret and put al your effort into getting it to the market instead of sharing it with the rest of the world? His argumentation finally culminates in Kontra’s law:

A commercial company’s ability to innovate is inversely proportional to its proclivity to publicly release conceptual products.

Dissemination of 'Vision of the Future'
The argument about revealing strategic directions to your competitors struck a cord with me. In 1995 Philips Design did the wildly inspiring Vision of the Future project. A number of years later they had a consultancy agency (I believe it was McKinsey) execute a study to investigate to what extent their predictions had been accurate. If I recall correctly, it turned out that about 70% of the concepts had become, or were on the verge of becoming real products. In most of the cases, however, the companies that were making the products were not Philips (I apologize, I read this a while ago and I have been trying to find a reference for this story, can't find it anywhere...).

On the other hand, there was also the Philips spin-off company Polymervision, aiming for something that is remarkably like one of the Shiva concepts from Vision of the Future. But most of all, the Visions of the Future project put Philips Design on the map as one of the most inspiring design agencies to work with and work for. And you need to ask: would all these other companies not have developed these products if Philips Design had not made (and revealed) its predictions? In other words: was there really any damage done by publicly displaying these product concepts?

Wake-up Light: from concept (left) to product (right)
But even without publicly revealing your concepts beforehand, it can be challenging enough to go from a good concept to a good product. To paraphrase Bill Buxton: you need to make the right product and you need to make the product right. An illustrative example might be the Philips Wake-Up Light: a lamp that gently awakes you with light and sound. Researchers at Philips discovered a 'user need' for a gentle wake up experience. And providing a pleasant wake up experience is also an essential part of the Daylight concept (video) in the Next Simplicity Event, and the rise and shine concept that is advertized on the Philips SimplicityHub. So Philips seems to have explored the concept pretty thoroughly, and seems to be putting its weight behind it. But when the Wake-Up Light hit the market, it provoked somewhat dualistic reactions, like these (at Amazon):

It's a great idea but very bad UI. [...] Shame though because it's packed full of nice little features - but it is really let down on usability. If you use it as a bedside lamp you have to remember to reset it to your wake-up setting before you go to bed.

If you go through the reviews - as for example these (sorry, in Dutch only) - you see a picture emerging that most reviewers really appreciate the functionality of the Wake-Up Light, but quite a lot of them make remarks about the poor usability and material quality. Sometimes it almost sounds like they put up with the product's weaknesses, because it has such great functionality. In essence: great concept, but the execution could have been better.

Philips has now developed a '2008' version of the Wake-Up Light by the way. Not in shops yet, but I'm eager to see about the reviews by users (here's one by a gadget site for starters). I hope they nailed it this time, because I really want to have one of these lamps too, but I'm not prepared to struggle with it.

Concept cars to test the water
Contrary to what Kontra states, I do believe that in the automotive industry the concept car approach is a very good way to 'test the water'. For example the new Fiat 500 (right) is almost identical to the Trepiùno concept car (left), presented in 2004. And I guess the enthusiastic reactions to that concept car may have contributed to Fiat's decision of making it a real car.

Concept cars for user interfaces?
However, is the concept car approach feasible for product and interaction designs as well? I have my doubts. Concepts cars are mostly about 'styling' (pardon my French). Sometimes they throw in a new feature or two (bike rack, kitchen in the back of the car), but in essence the automotive industry is gaging our reaction to a new style: is there a 'wow' factor? Interaction designs are not about style. In some cases they can provoke a 'wow' reaction, such as Jeff Han's multi-touch interfaces. However, I doubt whether presenting the general public with new interaction concepts will bring you any other knowledge than whether your new UI concept has a 'wow'. It won't tell you much about its everyday applicability, or even whether you've discovered a good UI concept, that's founded on real user needs. All you will know is whether your new UI concept is 'cool'. And as stated before: 'cute' is not a good adjective for systems.

Execution is everything
On the UXmatters blog Steve Baty underlines the importance of execution, with regard to UX strategies. Especially this line stuck with me:

Strategic fit describes the extent to which your organization’s desired goals—and your plan to get there—play to the strengths and capabilities of your organization as it is now.

You can have a great plan for a User Experience Strategy, but you should really consider whether your company is able to execute that strategy. The same thing goes for product concepts, I believe. A groundbreaking, radical new product concept is inspiring, but if your company is currently not able to realize it and needs some time to live up to the strategy, by exposing your product concept to the public you have just told everyone in what direction you will be heading in the coming years...